Terrorism in the Philippines
Will a Link Between Abu Sayyaf and Jemaah Islamiyah Spark Civil War?
The Philippines military forces are fighting extremists in the southern islands - but will their efforts lead to a wider civil war?
Detachment 88 is a special anti-terrorist unit created in Indonesia in the wake of the Bali bombing, in which 88 Australians were killed. The detachment is supported by both Australian and American technical assistance and has begun to achieve some success in the campaign against Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), which is the leading radical Islamist terror group in Southeast Asia. Two suspected leaders of the group have been arrested and the JI seems to be being squeezed out of its heartlands. However, it is possible that JI members have taken refuge in some of the southern islands of the Philippines. The southern Philippines has many islands with a predominantly Muslim population, some of whom may be willing to support the insurgents.
The Philippines government, led currently by President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, has worked hard to secure peace in its southern regions, where the desire for autonomy from the Christian northern areas can be quite intense. Ceasefires have been reached with two groups: the Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF). These ceasefires are being threatened now by the continued activities of the Abu Sayyaf group, which is believed to be the most active and effective terror group in the country. Some 400 people are said to have been killed by Abu Sayyaf since 2000, with 116 of those murdered during the bombing of a passenger ferry in Manila Bay two years ago. JI operatives working with Abu Sayyaf is a scenario causing great concern to the Philippines government and it has stepped up military presence in the area to the tune of more than 10,000 troops, although official figures are not available and estimates vary widely.
The American aid and international development agency has pumped more than US$200 million into the area in a variety of schemes in the hope of providing incentives to people to eschew terrorism and work for better opportunities for themselves and their families. This is probably the right approach but the good work may be undermined by the arrival of JI operatives and their ability to stir up fresh unrest. On the island of Jolo, 50 have been killed in fighting in recent weeks, half of whom were soldiers, while thousands of islanders have fled their homes. The military is fighting hard in the region; it may be that this effort will spark resentment in the MNLF and MILF who feel that their forbearance is being abused. A large-scale civil war is not impossible to imagine.
